The 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive yet, with Group of 5 (G5) teams vying for a spot in the expanded 12-team field. Here’s a look at the key G5 contenders and what they need to do to secure their place in the playoff.

Lessons from the First 12-Team CFP

1. Schedule Strength Matters: Teams with weaker schedules must dominate their opponents to impress the selection committee. Indiana’s 2024 season is a prime example, where their dominant performances helped them secure a top-8 ranking despite a weak schedule.
2. Conference Championship Weekend is Crucial: Teams that don’t play on conference championship weekend often see little movement in the final rankings. South Carolina’s drop in the 2024 final rankings after beating Clemson highlights this trend.
3. Early Losses Can Be Overcome: Notre Dame’s Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois didn’t prevent them from reaching the national championship game, emphasizing the importance of a strong finish.
4. The Danger of the No. 11 and No. 12 Spots: Even in a 12-team playoff, finishing in the top 10 is crucial to avoid being bumped out by a conference champion.

Bubble Teams with Early Tests

• Boise State: The Broncos’ early-season games against South Florida and Notre Dame will be critical in proving their playoff worthiness.
• South Florida: The Bulls face a tough start with games against Boise State, Florida, and Miami, making their early-season performance pivotal.
• Miami: The Canes’ non-conference games against Notre Dame and Florida State will be key factors in their playoff aspirations.
• Oklahoma: The Sooners’ early games against Michigan and Auburn will test their improvement and playoff potential.

G5 Contenders with No Margin for Error

• Tulane: The Green Wave’s game against Ole Miss is a must-win to stay in the playoff conversation.
• UNLV: The Rebels’ matchup with Boise State will be crucial for their Mountain West title hopes.
• Memphis: A win against Arkansas could help the Tigers separate themselves from other G5 contenders.
• Navy: The Midshipmen’s game against Notre Dame will be a key test of their playoff potential.

Conclusion

The 2025 College Football Playoff will be a test of resilience and strategy for Group of 5 teams. With the expanded field, these teams have a real shot at making history, but they’ll need to navigate a challenging season to secure their spot.