Introduction

College football is a sport where luck often plays a significant role. From turnover margins to close-game results and injuries, these factors can greatly influence a team's success. In this article, we'll take a deep dive into the luck elements of the 2024 season and look at which teams could make a big turnaround in 2025.

Turnover Luck

Last year's ACC championship game between Clemson and SMU showcased how turnovers can swing a game. Clemson had a significant turnover margin that likely contributed to their success and reaching the College Football Playoff. Looking at the broader data, some teams consistently benefit from positive turnover luck, while others struggle.

Close Games

The Alabama-Vanderbilt game was a prime example of how unlikely results can occur in close games. Vanderbilt managed to overcome the odds with some fortunate bounces and key plays. Analyzing postgame win expectancy helps us understand which teams should have won more or fewer games based on their performance.

Injuries and General Shuffling

The consistency of starting lineups can indicate a team's injury situation. Teams with more stable lineups tended to have better results, while those with frequent changes likely faced more challenges.

Major Turnaround Candidates

Several teams are primed for a significant improvement in 2025. Auburn, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida State, and Utah all have reasons to believe that a change in fortune could lead to a much better season.

In conclusion, while luck is unpredictable, understanding its influence and potential for change gives us insight into the upcoming NCAAF season.